Speaker：Daniel Levitin

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原视频

摘要

• I started wondering, are there things that I can do, systems that I can put into place, that will prevent bad things from happening? Or at least if bad things happen, will minimize the likelihood of it being a total catastrophe.
  我开始想，我能做些什么，有什么切实可行的方法，可以防止不好的事发生呢？或者至少就算不好的事情真的会发生，也能把损失降到最小。

• Danny shared with me that he'd been practicing something called prospective hindsight. It's something that he had gotten from the psychologist Gary Klein, who had written about it a few years before, also called the pre-mortem.
  Danny和我分享了他一直在练习的称为”预测后见之明“的东西。这是他从心理学家Gary Klein那里学到的。Gary前几年已经写了这个理论，也称为"事前剖析"。

• In the pre-mortem, Danny explained, you look ahead and you try to figure out all the things that could go wrong, and then you try to figure out what you can do to prevent those things from happening, or to minimize the damage.
  Danny解释，在事前剖析中，你要预测，尝试想出可能出错的所有事情，然后你要尝试可能的方法来防止这些错误发生，或将损失降到最小。

• Remember, when you're under stress, the brain releases cortisol. Cortisol is toxic, and it causes cloudy thinking.
  记住，当你有压力时，大脑会释放皮质醇。皮质醇是有毒的，它会导致思维不清晰。